Your New Year’s Resolution Will Fail (But It Doesn’t Have To)
The Behavioral Science Behind Resolutions, Streaks, and Successful Habits
Picture this: It’s December 31st at 11:59pm. The ball is about to drop, and you’ve got it all figured out. This is the year you’ll transform your life. You’ve downloaded the apps, bought the equipment, maybe even splurged on that expensive gym membership.
You’ve picked January 1st because it’s traditional. Or maybe you’ve studied up, so you know behavioral scientists have proven that we’re significantly more likely to succeed when we start on a “fresh start” day like New Year’s.
Two weeks later, you’re watching Netflix instead of doing push-ups, and that meditation app is collecting digital dust next to all the other wellness programs you downloaded and then silenced after the third annoying notification.
Sound familiar? You’re not alone, and it’s not just your imagination: millions of people feel that same surge of motivation every January 1st, and by Groundhog’s Day, most of them are right back where they started. The Fresh Start effect, powerful as it is, turns out to be more of a head start than a guarantee.
Here’s what’s actually happening.
The Problem Isn’t Motivation
When you make a New Year’s resolution, you’re highly motivated. You’ve picked your goal, maybe bought some equipment or downloaded an app, and you’re ready to go. The Fresh Start effect gives you an extra boost of momentum.
But motivation isn’t what makes habits stick. If it were, every resolution would succeed because no one is more motivated than on day one.
Instead, what kills most resolutions is friction. That new gym routine requires you to wake up an hour earlier, pack a bag, drive across town, and work out with strangers. Each of these micro-obstacles is a point of friction where you might fail.
The Right Resolution Is Smaller Than You Think
Here’s a common New Year’s resolution: “I want to exercise more.” Sounds reasonable, right? But what does “more” mean? More than what? And how much more?
Compare that to: “I will do five push-ups every morning right after I brush my teeth.” This resolution is specific, measurable, and (critically) tiny. It seems almost too easy. That’s exactly why it works.
When we envision our future selves, we imagine someone with iron willpower who loves kale smoothies and wakes up at 5am to run marathons. But your January 1st self still has the same basic hardware as your December 31st self. Starting too big is like getting on the highway and pressing down the accelerator and not letting go. Realistically, you just can’t go that hard for long.
Transform Your Environment, Not Just Your Mind
Willpower, as it turns out, is a lousy strategy. The most successful resolvers don’t white-knuckle their way through temptation — they eliminate it entirely.
Want to scroll less on your phone? Delete the apps that waste your time. Want to eat better? Clear out your pantry and don’t buy junk food in the first place. Want to write more? Set up a dedicated writing space with everything you need within arm’s reach.
Your environment shapes your behavior far more than your intentions do. The best resolution is one that requires a single burst of willpower to change your surroundings, rather than constant vigilance to resist temptation.
Make A Plan (An Actual Plan)
Setting up that perfect writing nook feels productive. The desk is clear, the lighting is perfect, your favorite pen is ready. But until you decide exactly when you’ll plant yourself in that chair, it’s just furniture.
Instead of “I’ll write more,” try this: “While my coffee brews each morning, I will write 300 words.” That’s specific. It’s tied to something you already do (making coffee). And it’s tiny enough to actually happen.
Here’s the wild part: that microscopic commitment adds up to over 100,000 words in a year. That’s a novel. Written in the time it takes to make coffee.
Start Now, Start Small
Remember those five push-ups? They might seem pointless — how will five push-ups get you in shape? But they serve a more important purpose: they establish the habit. Once you’re doing five push-ups daily without fail, adding more is surprisingly easy.
This is why most resolution strategies backfire. Going from zero to sixty not only exhausts you physically, it depletes your mental resources. You can maintain anything for a few days through sheer determination. But determination always runs out.
Instead, pick a habit so small you can’t fail. Do it every day for a month. Then, and only then, level it up slightly. Your year-end self will thank you more for maintaining five daily push-ups than for that gym membership you used twice in January.
And if it gets to be too much, don’t be afraid to revert back to your original simple habit. If you can’t do 30 push ups today, five is infinitely better than zero.
The Real Power Of Streaks
I’ve been critical of streaks in the past, but the truth is, they work. Never missing a day is actually one of the most powerful ways to cement a habit. Ask anyone who’s maintained a 500-day streak on DuoLingo — that owl has them trained.
But here’s the key: you need a streak forgiveness system. DuoLingo gives you one. You should give yourself one too.
Instead of saying “I’ll meditate every day,” try “I’ll meditate six days a week.” Hit all seven? That’s gravy. Miss a day? No problem, you’re still on track. This takes the pressure off and makes it much more likely you’ll stick with it long term.
The best part is, you’ll probably end up doing it every day anyway. But removing that psychological pressure of perfection makes all the difference.
Make It Official With A Commitment Contract
One of the most powerful tools for sticking to a resolution isn’t willpower or motivation — it’s making a formal commitment to yourself. This isn’t just thinking “I should probably write more” or even writing down a goal. It’s about creating a moment of ceremony where you officially commit to your new path.
This commitment contract can be as simple as raising your right hand and speaking your intention out loud: “I [your name] commit to writing 300 words every morning while my coffee brews.” Or you might write it down, sign it, and date it. Some people prefer to make their commitment public, sharing it with friends or on social media. The format matters less than the formality — you’re transforming a vague wish into a real promise.
Why does this work? Because we’re wired to honor commitments, especially ones we make in a formal way. Think about a wedding vow, or swearing to tell the truth in court. The ceremony of the moment gives weight to the words. When you treat your resolution with similar gravity, you’re more likely to take it seriously long after the Fresh Start momentum fades.
Just remember to make your commitment specific and achievable. “I commit to writing 300 words six days per week” is stronger than “I swear to write more.” The more precise your promise, the more likely you are to keep it.
The Future Is Not About Perfection
Most resolutions turn into a game of streaks without forgiveness. How many days can you maintain your new habit? Miss one day and you’ve “ruined” it.
This mindset is poison. Life happens. You’ll miss days. The most successful resolvers know this and plan for it. They focus not on perfection but on consistency. Not on unbroken streaks but on averages. Not on today but on the whole year.
When you do miss a day — and you will — the only thing that matters is what you do the next day. This is why tiny habits are so powerful. It’s a lot easier to get back on the horse when the horse is five push-ups tall.
So yes, use the Fresh Start effect. Let it give you that initial boost of momentum. But don’t count on motivation to carry you through the year. Instead, start small, shape your environment, make a concrete plan, and play the long game. Your resolution might not look as dramatic as you imagined, but it will be sustainable.
And that’s the only kind of resolution worth making.
Sam Liberty is a gamification expert, applied game designer, and consultant. His clients include The World Bank, Click Therapeutics, and DARPA. He teaches game design at Northeastern University. He is the former Lead Game Designer at Sidekick Health.
